The Betting Spreadsheet (Jul. 30 – Aug. 7)

The Spreadsheet:

Success rate for the 2018-19 season: almost 100%. Small stakes, small returns. Get on my betting spreadsheet program and you’ll be whispering that in your sleep. Quit while you’re ahead? No! Never quit, just keep getting more ahead.

Legia Warsaw got turned over at Spartak Trnava and as the underdogs, Trnava wouldn’t have enough for the second leg. I was right and Legia got the 1-0 win despite being down to 9 men. Pyunik took out Tobol with the same scoreline. They were at home after a 0-0 away first leg, it wasn’t odds on but it was in my mind.

So we moved along. Wednesday. Just the eight Champions League qualifiers for me tonight. I picked three.

The method is simple, bank the previous winnings to the nearest ten and that generates your stake for the next bet. Win £36.96 > bank £30.00 > stake £6.96 on the next bet. I’d have a flow chart handy but I don’t know how to make pretty ones.

So here we’ve got BATE Borisov who got a 0-0 at home to HJK Helsinki – they’re the better team but not odds on. Basel need a win to overturn their 1-2 aggregate score whilst Celtic just looked better in their first leg win over Rosenborg but don’t have a big enough lead to be complacent. See how all these fall into place, Basel to beat PAOK should have been shorter odds but wasn’t.

Notice how my returns increased? That’s the method in full effect.

Don’t worry, we move onto other sports if football’s not your bag.

Before we launch into this week’s betting preview there’s a few FFB Betting Rules to adhere to if you’re going to take on some of my tips:

  • You will NEVER see us put money on an accumulator; a single, double or a treble will do just fine. We’re here to make money, not to splurge our winnings on 2,000/1 accumulator of a Saturday morning and then wonder at the end of the month where all your money’s fucked off.
  • We DO NOT bet on horse racing or greyhounds. They are different creatures to us, it’s completely random. Form means shit, is what I’m trying to say.
  • We actively encourage our users to create spreadsheets to track their bets. If you’re a professional bettor like we are, you need to keep a track of your income, think of it as a payslip.
  • Absolutely ANY market is fair game. We all have our favourites, just don’t bet in-play. It’s a mug’s game.
  • We NEVER bet on the opening day.
  • DO NOT chase winnings. When the fun stops stop.
  • NEVER, under any circumstances, cash-out. Don’t be one of those guys.
  • NEVER take part in matched betting. Don’t be one of those guys.
  • And finally, just enjoy yourself.

Some rules are made to be broken, son. I don’t usually let myself get drawn into chasing winnings, but what’s the harm? Gillespie? Merson? What’s the harm? Basel embarrassingly lost 3-0 at home to PAOK (nobody foresaw that) and Celtic held on for a 0-0 draw in Norway.

It was in-play as well. I’m man enough to admit that.

They came in quite easily and it was early on Thursday. Early enough have a gander at the later kick-offs. Bank the £100 and carry on. Think about the earnings. We split our money on our next bets because… ‘small stakes, small returns’.

One £5.90 and an equal amount left over the next time a bet arouses us. Remember, we do not bet on opening day. Football League will be fair game on August 11th and the Premier League on August 18th.

It’s only easy if you know the answers.

 

 

Preview: Aug. 8 – 14, 2018

It’s of course the first week of the season and since we don’t bet on opening day football, we look to the rest of the season.

Forget about the line of bets we’ve put away to get to this point, just whack a simple amount, say £1 on promotion from each Football League:

Championship: Nottingham Forest

Forest have gone down the Wolverhampton Wanderers route of trying to claw their way out of the Championship: throw money at a young Portugese player and hope he can do the business for you. They’re traditionally a big club so it’s a no brainer here, surely. Or go for Leeds United: they’re always stable.

League One: Charlton Athletic

Charlton are one of the biggest, if not the biggest, clubs in League One and should be aiming for automatics after some big clubs like Rotherham got out last season. Lee Bowyer still under caretaker charge doesn’t seem flimsy at all. These are in it for the long haul.

League Two: Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town are a bit similar to Charlton in the respect that Mansfield are bigger than their League Two status. Only really began to harbour serious promotion hopes last season and should’ve gone up then. You know what they say: second time lucky.

Japanese Baseball League

My boys, Seibu Lions are on a good winning run and are top of the Pacific Division and will face the mighty Rakuten Gold Eagles on Saturday morning, put a couple of quid on it, why not?

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